Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, May 1, 2008

BoSacks Speaks Out: What is happening in our industry?


BoSacks Speaks Out: What is happening in our industry?
www.bosacks.com

What is happening in our industry? Where are we going? And if we are going anywhere, how are we going to get there? Being dead center of the publication information fulcrum as I am, I see it all, hear it all, and well know that I don't know it all. But I do know quite a few things.

I will briefly lay out a few thoughts for your perusal and feedback.

1) Although changing, the publishing industry is not leaving this planet. It is not dying, nor even unwell. It is robust and merely going through a mighty technological transformation, a metamorphosis if you will, of huge proportions and reach. We are growing into something else. Our reach, our ability to find readership is stronger than ever. Our once small pond of potential readers has grown to an ocean. And it is no longer a one-way street. We can write and distribute our product and our readers can write/vent/agree right back at us and to our other readers too. The old one-way street is now a multi-pathed intersection of six lane highways with traffic in all directions

2) Printers should have no fear; they will do fine in the next phase of publishing. They may print shorter runs of magazines, but will no doubt print more titles, not fewer. And as everybody knows, printers make most of their profit on make-readies. So this could/should be considered a good thing. Those printers that are efficient, technologically astute and embrace the new workflows will prosper.

3) It can be a writers/editors dream world. There are more ways for writers to have an outlet then ever before. The potential of sustained readership is almost unlimited. And as always the proof is in the pudding. If it is a worthwhile set of words strung together in an interesting fashion, there is always hope for writers' revenue. One man on a small island in a small lake in the upstate Berkshire Mountains of New York can communicate daily with the world at large. And they in turn can talk back to same niche global group.
It is a cultural and professional exchange and every member benefits from the exposure.

4) Production and circulation professionals will still be needed to put it all together and sling the written product around the globe, either in print or in a digital format. Will they be called production personnel or circulators? I have no idea. But the functions and the responsibilities remain the same. Somebody writes, somebody sells and somebody distributes with the best technology at hand.

So as we move forward through this transformation nothing has changed except our efficiency to do better at what we already do - distribute thought and ideas; that is, communication. We sell and monetize a compendium of stored memory, things that our readers didn't know or wanted to know more of.

What do you think? Do you think I overstate the case? Are you ready to fly? Are you ready to move into the next golden age of publishing?

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

BoSacks Speaks Out: On Paper, Advertising and, Oh yes... Commodities

BoSacks Speaks Out: On Paper, Advertising and, Oh yes... Commodities
www.bosacks.com


I just want to take a time out here to point out, no suggest, that the paper people reading this newsletter read the following article twice. Why, you may ask? Because reading and not understanding what you are reading can be dangerous, and I think that there has been a misunderstanding of the current advertising climate and a confusion of economic facts by the paper community. After all, as the Japanese proverb goes, "If you believe everything you read, you better not read."

What the heck is Bo talking about this time? It is this - the belief and actions of the paper companies that, with all the predictions and prognostications of increased advertising spending, it is a good time for paper price increases. In my humble opinion it is not, and will not, indeed cannot, be supported. It is among other things, the simple dynamic of supply and demand. Magazine circulations and the paper they draw upon are on the decrease. Paper supply is on the increase. All this "talk" that I freely distribute to you about the advertising recovery can be very misleading. Yes, advertising spending is on the rise from the worst business climate in several generations. So what? Increased advertising across the "board" does not necessarily equate to increased magazine pages. The "board" has changed; it has grown, and has become an uncontrollable and annoying monster. Ads are everywhere, from the Internet, to taxi cabs, to the public toilets we frequent. All these new format ads cost money and that money is coming from and being siphoned from more traditional vehicles, such as magazines and newspapers.


Let's get real here. With a few exceptions, magazines are still hurting, laying off people, and decreasing ad rate bases. And that means less paper, not more. Less paper by publishers means, more paper in inventory. And that means, by the law of commodities denied by most paper companies, not a good time for an increase.


BoSacks
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